If you watch the Gold market everyday like I do you will begin to notice when the market does things differently than it did recently.
For the past 2 months Gold has been trading like it did for years, up slightly in the Asian markets only to be ground down after the London fix until the close on the Globex at 5pm New York time. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. Every once in a while there would be big spikes during the COMEX sessions only to be met with selling at particular levels, usually 1% or 2% above the COMEX opening price, the so-called 2% rule.
Well, these past 2 months the old behaviour of stomping on Gold during the European/NY trading hours came back with a vengeance and nearly every single day has been that Asia up, New York down pattern. This morning was anomalous. This morning the selling didn’t start within 20 minutes of the European open. No, the selling waited until the COMEX actually opened, at which point the selling began in earnest and the price was capped near $1715 per ounce. Gold closed on the Globex at $1714.15 per ounce just now.
Is this the beginning of a change in the market’s behaviour? I don’t know but I do know that I’ll be watching more closely now this week. We are within days of the 1 year anniversary of the spike low which defines this trading band at $1525 per ounce. That occurred on options expiration last year, December 16th. If I were still a betting man I would lay even odds on one last raid into options expiration on the 21st, replete with general equity market sell-off, to create as much fear as possible over the fiscal cliff.